London, 26 February 2016–The International Cocoa Organization today releases its first forecasts for the 2015/2016 cocoa year and revised estimates of world production, grindings and stocks of cocoa beans for 2014/2015, as summarized below. The data published in Issue No. 1 – Volume XLII – Cocoa year 2015/2016 of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, reflect the most recent information available to the Secretariat as at the beginning of February 2016.

Summary of forecasts and revised estimates

 

Cocoa year
(Oct-Sep)
2014/2015 2015/2016 Year-on-year change
Previous estimates a/ Revised estimates Forecasts
(thousand tonnes) (Per cent)
World production 4 201 4 230
4 154
– 76 – 1.8%
World grindings 4 123 4 146
4 225 + 79 + 1.9%
Surplus/deficit b/  + 36  + 42
 – 113
End-of-season stocks 1 601 1 607 1 494
– 113 – 7.6%
Stocks/Grindings ratio 38.8% 38.8% 35.4%

Notes:
a/   Estimates published in Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Vol. XLI – No. 4 – Cocoa year 2014/2015
b/   Surplus/deficit: Net world crop (gross crop adjusted for loss in weight) minus grindings
Totals may differ due to rounding.

This issue of the Bulletin contains the Secretariat’s first forecasts for the 2015/2016 cocoa year, as well as data for the past four years of production and grindings of cocoa beans, detailed by country. The main features of the global cocoa market are illustrated in colour charts. In addition, the Bulletinincludes comments on crop and demand prospects in the leading countries for the current season, and a review of price developments on international markets for cocoa beans during the October-December quarter of 2015.

Statistical information on trade in cocoa beans, cocoa products and chocolate, by country and by region, published in this edition, covers annual data from 2011/2012 to 2013/2014 and quarterly statistics for the period October-December 2013 to April-June 2015. Details of origin of imports and destination of exports for leading cocoa importing countries are also provided. Historical statistics on cocoa trade and consumption, by country and by region, for the period 2005/2006 to 2013/2014 are presented for reference.