The ICCO today released QBCS No 4 Vol XXXIII — Cocoa Year 2006/07 containing its revised estimates for the 2006/07 cocoa year of world production, grindings and stocks of cocoa beans.  The data published in this issue reflect the most recent information available to the Secretariat as at mid-November 2007.

Summary of forecasts and revised estimates

Cocoa year (Oct-Sep) 2006/2007 2007/08 Year-on-year change
 Previous estimates a/  Revised estimates  Forecasts
(thousand tonnes)  (Per cent)
World production 3 724 3 435 3 400  -324  -8.7%
World grindings  3 520 3 557  3 608 + 88 +2.5%
Surplus/deficit b/  + 167  – 156 – 242
End-of-season stocks 1 840 1 708 1 598 -242 -13.2%
Stocks/Grindings ratio 52.3% 48.0% 44.3%

a/ Forecasts published in Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Vol. XXXIII – No. 3 – Cocoa year 2006/07
b/ Surplus/deficit: net world crop (gross crop adjusted loss in weight) minus grindings
Totals and differences may differ due to rounding.

This issue contains the Secretariat’s latest estimates, detailed by country, for the 2006/07 year as well as data for the past 4 years of production and grindings of cocoa beans.  The main features of the global cocoa market are illustrated in colour charts.  In addition, it includes a review of price developments on international markets for cocoa beans during the 2006/07 cocoa year.

Statistical information on trade in cocoa beans, cocoa products and chocolate, by country and region, covers annual data from 2003/04 to 2005/06 and quarterly statistics for the period July-Sept 2005 to Jan-Mar 2007.  Details of destination of exports and origin of imports for leading cocoa-exporting countries are also provided.  Historical ststistics on cocoa trade and consumption, by country and region, for the period 1997/98 to 2005/06, are presented for reference.

Copies of the Bulletin, including Microsoft Excel files and Adobe PDF format can be ordered from the Secretariat:

International Cocoa Organization
Commonwealth House
1-19 New Oxford Street
London WC1A 1NU
Tel: +44 (0)20 7400 5050
Fax: +44 (0)20 7421 5500

The current review reports on price movements on the international markets for the month of October 2007.  Chart I shows the evolution of the ICCO daily prices in October, in US dollars and SDRs.

Chart II illustrates price movements on the London and New York markets as well as the ICCO daily prices from August to October 2007.  Chart III illustrates the link between New York futures prices and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the pound sterling.  Chart IV shows end-of-month stocks in licensed warehouse in the US and the arbitrage spread between the LIFFE and ICE futures markets.