Cocoa Market Report for March 2024

Abidjan, 18 April 2024 – The International Cocoa Organization releases the Cocoa Market Report for March 2024. The current report highlights the following insights:

  • Significant decline in production from the two leading producers i.e., Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana has led prices to rally unabated.
  • With prices at US$7,109 at the start of March 2024, by the end of the month, the nearby contract in London increased by 47% to US$10,455 per tonne while in New York it rose by 44% from US$6,769 per tonne to US$9,729 per tonne.
  • The current backwardation structure of the cocoa market continues to underscore the supply challenges and consequent high prices.
  • While Ghana’s production deficit appears to be structural in nature due to a combination of negative events: the large number of cocoa trees infected with deadly swollen shoot virus disease; illegal mining, which has reduced the number of cocoa farms; ageing trees and unfavourable weather conditions.
  • In Côte d’Ivoire, production shortfall appears to be an isolated short-term event at least for the time being but some recent reports indicate that 25% to 30% of Ivorian farms are infected by CSSVD.
  • With not much change in the fundamentals for the current season, the 2024/25 season will now be the focus on how prices and the balance sheet will evolve.

You can download the complete report by clicking here.

109th International Cocoa Council and Subsidiary Bodies, 25 – 27 April 2024, Brussels, Belgium

Abidjan, 14 April 2024 – The International Cocoa Council and subsidiary bodies, including the Consultative Board on the World Cocoa Economy and the Economics and Administration and Finance Committees, will meet from 25 to 27 April, 2024.

This information is restricted to ICCO Members. Please go to Member area for more information.

Timetable of Meetings, 25 – 27 April 2024, Brussels, Belgium

 

MEETING
47th Consultative Board  (Thursday, 25 April)

09:00 – 11:00 Local time
Opening of the 109th International Cocoa Council and 22nd Economics Committee

(Thursday, 25 April – Palais d’Egmont, Brussels, Belgium)

  • 11:00 – 12:30 (Local time) – Council
  • 14:00 – 17:00 (Local time) – Economics Commitee
 25th Administration and Finance Committee* and 109th International Cocoa Council

(Friday, 26 April – Palais d’Egmont, Brussels, Belgium)

  • 09:00 – 12:30 (Local time) – Administration and Finance Committee (*)
  • 14:00 – 17:00 (Local time) – Council
109th International Cocoa Council 

(Saturday, 27 April – Palais d’Egmont, Brussels, Belgium)

  • 09:00 – 12:30 GMT (Local time) – Council
* = It is respectfully noted that the meetings of the Administration and Finance Committee are open to ICCO Member countries only.

 

Cocoa Market Report for February 2024

Abidjan, 22 March 2024 – The International Cocoa Organization releases the Cocoa Market Report for February 2024. The current report highlights the following insights:

  • High cocoa prices remain a significant concern due to a supply shortfall from key producers Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, resulting in a 28% and 35% decrease in arrivals at Ivorian and Ghanaian ports, respectively compared to the previous season.
  • Futures markets were in backwardation.  On average, the MAR-24 contracts traded with a premium of 14% and 11% over the SEP-24 respectively in London and New York.  Moreover, they recorded a significant rise from February 2023. Their corresponding year-on-year increases were 147% and 120%.
  • Relative stocks of Ivorian and Ghanaian beans are declining in the US market.  They are assumed to be attracted into the European market in anticipation of compliance with the EU deforestation-free regulation.

    You can download the complete report by clicking here.

February 2024 Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics

Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, 29 February 2024 – The International Cocoa Organization today releases its first forecasts for the 2023/24 cocoa year and revised estimates of world production, grindings, and stocks of cocoa beans for the 2022/23 cocoa year. The data published in Issue No. 1 – Volume L – Cocoa year 2023/24 of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, reflect the most recent information available to the Secretariat as at the beginning of February 2024.

Significant declines in production are expected from the top producing countries as they are envisaged to feel the detrimental effect of unfavourable weather conditions and diseases. Moreover, old trees in these countries are producing with lower yields. The low availability of cocoa beans has led to significant increases in cocoa prices. With costs of raw materials increasing, this is likely to affect the operations of processors.

Compared to the 2022/23 season, global cocoa supply is anticipated to decline by almost 11% to 4.449 million tonnes. Global cocoa demand is projected to decrease by almost 5% to 4.779 million tonnes.

Summary of forecasts and revised estimates

 

 Cocoa year 

(Oct-Sept)

 2022/23 2023/24 Year-on-year change
Previous estimates a/ Revised estimates Forecasts
(thousand tonnes) (Per cent)
World gross production 4 953 4 996 4 449 – 547 – 10.9%
World grindings 5 002 5 020 4 779 – 241 – 4.8%
Surplus/deficit   b/ – 99 – 74 – 374
End-of-season stocks 1 744 1 769 1 395 – 374 – 21.1%
Stocks/Grindings ratio 34.9% 35.1% 29.2%

Notes:
a/ Estimates published in Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Vol. XLIX – No. 3 – Cocoa year 2022/23
b/ Surplus/deficit: net world crop (gross crop adjusted for 1% loss in weight) minus grindings.
Totals may differ due to rounding.

Statistical information on trade in cocoa beans, cocoa products and chocolate, by country and by region, published in this edition, covers annual data from 2020/21 to 2022/23 and quarterly statistics for the period January-March 2022 to July-September 2023. Details on destinations of exports and origins of imports for leading cocoa exporting countries are also provided.

Caution should be exercised in the interpretation of the data in this issue of the Bulletin as they may be subject to revisions in subsequent Bulletins and reports from the Secretariat.

Copies of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, in Microsoft Excel and Adobe PDF formats, can be ordered from the new ICCO e-Shop: www.icco.org/shop or by email: statistics.section@icco.org

Cocoa Market Report for January 2024

Abidjan, 23 February 2024 – The International Cocoa Organization releases the Cocoa Market Report for January 2024. The current report highlights the following insights:

  • Another year of a supply deficit and unfavourable weather conditions in West Africa are exacerbating the bullish prices situation.
  • Arrivals at Ivorian ports are estimated to be down by 34% year-on-year to 1.051 million tonnes as at 4 February 2024. In Ghana, graded and sealed cocoa purchases were down year-on-year by 35% to 351,000 tonnes.
  • In January 2024, the nearby contract i.e., MAR-24 price in London and New York averaged US$4,540 per tonne and US$4382 per tonne, respectively. Compared to the nominal average price in January 2023, prices are up by 84% in London and 67% in New York.
  • Grindings data published by regional associations for Q4.2023 do not show significant changes compared to the Q4 period of the previous two cocoa years.
  • Origin processing has been promoted over the past years and Côte d’Ivoire is currently seen as the leading cocoa grinder in the world. However, there is the likelihood of origin grindings being affected by the low availability of beans at major origin destinations.

You can download the complete report by clicking here.

World cocoa bean stocks for the 2022/23 season

London, 25 January 2024. The ICCO Expert Working Group on Stocks (EWG-S) met today, Thursday 25 January 2024 to review the level of world cocoa bean stocks. The EWG-S is composed of experts in the cocoa field who meet once a year, at the invitation of the ICCO, to review and analyse the results of the ICCO’s annual survey of cocoa bean stocks held in European warehouses as well as assess the level of global cocoa bean stocks. The survey is conducted every year (since 2000) and aims to improve transparency in the cocoa market.

 

LOCATION OF THE ESTIMATED AND IDENTIFIED COCOA BEAN STOCKS 30 SEPTEMBER 2021 30 SEPTEMBER 2022 30 SEPTEMBER 2023
Europe 753 842 771
North America (ICE) 355 368 323
Côte d’Ivoire 133 87 67
Ghana 99 13 29
Peru 26 28 28
Total identified stocks (*).                                    a 1,366 1,337 1,218
Manufacturers’ stocks 92 90 97
Cocoa beans in transit 108 73 81
Southeast Asis (**) 199 223 223
Cameroon, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Togo, Venezuela 54 73 73
Total estimated stocks (***).                                 b 452 459 474
Total identified + total estimated (a+b).          c 1,818 1,796 1,690
Total identified stocks as a percentage of total identified and estimated stocks (a/c) 75% 74% 72%
Total statistically-derived stocks (****).                      d 2,059 1,843 1,744
Total stocks as a percentage of statistically derived stocks (c/d) 88% 97% 97%

Notes: Totals may differ from sum of constituents due to rounding

* It refers to stocks identified in the last three consecutive seasons

** The stocks of 2021 and 2022 have been kindly provided by the Cocoa Association of Asia. The 2023 stocks have been estimated by the EWG-S

***  This only includes estimates for the countries listed above

**** Published in the ICCO Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Volume XLIX, No. 4, Cocoa Year 2022/23

While the ICCO Secretariat maintains, so far, its supply deficit estimate of 99,000 tonnes for 2022/23 as published in its latest Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics (QBCS), it may revise that figure in its next Bulletin due at the end of February 2023, taking into account the outcome of this survey.

For more information, please contact Carlos Follana, Marketing and Communication Coordinator, International Cocoa Organization, ICCO Building, II Plateaux ENA – Avenue Boga Doudou, Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire; Tel: +225 27 22 51 49 50/51 | Fax: +225 27 22 51 49 79 | E-mail: Carlos.Follana@icco.org

Cocoa Market Report for December 2023

Abidjan, 23 January 2023 – The International Cocoa Organization releases the Cocoa Market Report for December 2023. The current report highlights the following insights:

  • During the calendar year 2023, supply was the major contributory factor that fuelled bullish prices.
  • Other factors that signalled supply deficits and elevated cocoa prices were unconducive weather conditions and diseases. Floods caused delays to the mid-crop harvest.
  • Moreover, black pod disease and swollen shoot virus due to the excess rains during the last quarter of 2023 heightened continued concerns of a shortfall in supply.
  • With the recent surge in freight rates due to tensions in the Red Sea area, international trade is likely to be affected. With already high cocoa prices, an additional cost resulting from high freight rates may be daunting for cocoa users and could affect demand.
  • At the end of 2023, the annual average price of the nearby contract in London had firmed by 46% compared to the previous calendar year. During the same period in New York, the average of the first position contract prices strengthened by 35% year-on-year. Furthermore, the annual average of the US-denominated ICCO daily price stood at US$3,261 per tonne, up by 38% compared to the average price of the previous year. The average of the Euro-denominated prices increased by 34% year-over-year, attaining €3,015 per tonne in 2023.

You can download the complete report by clicking here.

 

Feasibility Study on Africa Cocoa Exchange (AfCX)

Abidjan, December 2023 – An Africa Cocoa Exchange will revolutionize cocoa marketing in Africa and bring positive impact to achieving a sustainable world cocoa economy. Recognizing that a “commodity exchange is an inclusive but market-friendly and financially sustainable solution for imposing structure on Africa’s often fragmented agricultural value chain”, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) commissioned a study to assess the technical feasibility and financial viability of establishing an Africa Cocoa Exchange (AfCX).

The feasibility study was split into two phases (Phase I and Phase II) to allow for a constructive stakeholders’ engagement and a systematic and logical approach to identifying a suitable exchange model that is appropriate for Africa.

Phase I of the study involves:

  1. A detailed analysis of the cocoa value chain and sectoral regulations in Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, and Cameroon
  2. A detailed assessment of the Africa commodity exchange experience through a survey of Africa’s currently operational commodity exchanges
  3. Identification of a limited set of institutional design options of a commodity exchange with three components of spot, derivative and finance
  4. Engaging stakeholders for selection of an appropriate model of an Africa Cocoa Exchange (AfCX) for a deep dive analysis in Phase II of the study

Phase II of the study involves:

  1. Defining the interfaces between spot, derivatives, and financing components of the AfCX
  2. Specifying the functional and infrastructural scope, resources, workflows, and frameworks of the AfCX
  3. Articulating the role of AfCX with respect to the wider environment (sectoral regulations, institutional regulations, physical markets, and terminal markets)
  4. Pilot testing of the AfCX to demonstrate proof of concept.

The Phase I of the study has been completed and the reports are now available to the public for download here. The main report of the feasibility study should be read together with its five appendixes.

Please contact yunusa.abubakar@icco.org for any enquiries on the reports. Work on Phase II of the feasibility study will commence as soon as funding has been secured.

Cocoa Market Report for November 2023

Abidjan, 12 December 2023 – The International Cocoa Organization releases the Cocoa Market Report for November 2023. The current report highlights the following insights:

  • Cocoa prices continued to extend their rallies in November due to supply tightness. By the end of the month the nearby contract prices reached US$4,522 per tonne in London and US$4,458 per tonne in New York. Compared to prices at the official start of the 2023/24 season in October, this reflects an increase of 23% and 27% in London and New York, respectively.
  • Unconducive weather conditions in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana have been the root cause for the current decline in supply. Heavy rains have affected farming activities, the spread of diseases and haulage operations in the two countries. As these two leading producing countries supply about two-thirds of global cocoa beans, any change in their production tends to have a significant impact on the cocoa market.
  • Climate related challenges have consequences not only for producers but for consumers as well. Similar to high cocoa prices, confectionary manufacturers are also faced with other expenses such as surging cost of sugar. Prices of sugar have also increased due to weather events that led to declining production in key sugar producing countries.
  • The high cost of key ingredients due to supply constraints will consequently raise production costs for chocolate manufacturers and eventually be reflected in the price rise of confectionery products.
  • The deficit expected for the current season and previous years’ deficits have been caused by unconducive weather conditions. As the season progresses and more information becomes available, it will become clearer how supply, demand and prices will play out. 

You can download the complete report by clicking here.

 

November 2023 Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics

Abidjan, 30 November 2023 – The International Cocoa Organization today releases its revised estimates for the 2021/22 and 2022/23 cocoa years for world production, grindings and stocks of cocoa beans, as summarized below. The data published in Issue No. 4 – Volume XLIX – Cocoa Year 2022/23 of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics reflect the latest information available to the Secretariat as of early November 2023.

The commentary of this edition of the Bulletin points out that the 2022/23 season was mainly characterized by a decline in supply from the two main producing countries and ended with a global production deficit. As the current 2023/24 season is also expected to end with a global production deficit, market participants continue to weigh the situation of successive supply deficits.

In this regard, several revisions have been made to the 2022/23 cocoa balance sheet. On the supply side, the production estimate has been revised upwards by 15,000 tons to 4.953 million tons, compared to the 4.938 million tons estimated in the previous bulletin.

As cocoa bean grindings are an indicator of cocoa demand, the continuous decline in quarterly grindings data published by the major regional cocoa associations during the 2022/23 season, compared to the previous year, indicates a slowdown in cocoa demand. On the demand side, grindings were revised down to 5.002 million tons from 5.005 million tons in the previous Bulletin.

Summary of revised estimates

 

Cocoa year
(Oct-Sep)		 2021/2022 2022/2023 Year-on-year change
Revised
estimates		 Previous
estimates a/		 Revised
estimates
(thousand tonnes) (Per cent)
World gross production 4 826 4 938 4 953 + 127 + 2.6%
World grindings 4 994 5 005 5 002 + 8 + 0.2%
Surplus/deficit b/ – 216 – 116 – 99
 
End-of-season stocks 1 843 1 727 1 744 – 99 – 5.4%
Stocks/Grindings ratio 36.9% 34.5% 34.9%

Notes:
a/ Estimates published in Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Vol. XLIX – No. 3 – Cocoa year 2022/23
b/  Surplus/deficit: net world crop (gross crop adjusted for loss in weight) minus grindings. Totals may differ due to rounding

 

Statistical information on trade in cocoa beans, cocoa products and chocolate, by country and by region, published in this edition, covers annual data from 2019/20 to 2021/22 and quarterly statistics for the period October-December 2021 to April-June 2023. Details on destinations of exports and origins of imports for leading cocoa exporting countries are also provided.

Caution should be exercised in the interpretation of the data in this issue of the Bulletin as they may be subject to revisions in subsequent Bulletins and reports from the Secretariat.

Copies of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, in Microsoft Excel and Adobe PDF formats, can be ordered from the new ICCO e-Shop: www.icco.org/shop or by email: statistics.section@icco.org