May 2008 Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics

The International Cocoa Organization today releases its revised forecasts for the current 2007/08 cocoa year of world production, grindings and stocks of cocoa beans, summarized below. The data published in issue No. 2 – Volume XXXIV –  Cocoa year 2007/08 of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, reflect the most recent information available to the Secretariat as at the beginning of May 2008.

Summary of revised forecasts and estimates

Cocoa year (Oct-Sep) 2006/07 2007/2008 Year-on-year change
Revised estimates Previous forecasts a/ Revised Forecasts
(thousand tonnes) (Per cent)
World production 3 370 3 713 3 740 + 370 + 11.0%
World grindings 3 637 3 727 3 744 + 107 + 2.9%
Surplus/deficit b/ – 301 – 51 – 41
End-of-season stocks 1 574 1 536 1 533 -41 -2.6%
Stocks/Grindings ratio 43.3% 41.2% 40.9%

Notes:
a/ Forecasts published in Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Vol. XXXIV – No. 1 – Cocoa year 2007/08
b/ Surplus/deficit: net world crop (gross crop adjusted loss in weight) minus grindings
Totals and differences may differ due to rounding.

This issue of the Bulletin contains the Secretariat’s revised forecasts for the 2007/08 cocoa year as well as data for the past four years of production and grindings of cocoa beans, detailed by country.  The main features of the global cocoa market are illustrated in colour charts.  In addition, it includes comments on crop and demand prospects in the leading countries for the current season, and a review of price developments on international markets for cocoa beans during the January-March quarter of 2008.

Statistical information on trade in cocoa beans, cocoa products and chocolate, by country and by region, published in this edition, covers annual data from 2004/05 to 2006/07 and quarterly statistics for the period January-March 2006 to July-September 2007.  Details of destination of exports and origin of imports for leading cocoa-exporting countries are also provided.  Historical statistics on cocoa trade and consumption, by country and region, for the period 1998/99 to 2006/07, are presented for reference.

Copies of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, including Microsoft Excel files and Adobe PDF format can be ordered from ICCO Secretariat at the address below:

International Cocoa Organization
Commonwealth House
1-19 New Oxford Street
London WC1A 1NU
Tel: +44 (0)20 7400 5050
Fax: +44 (0)20 7421 5500
E-mail: info@icco.org

Monthly Review of the Cocoa Market Situation, March 2008

The current review of the cocoa market situation reports on price movements on the international markets during the month of March 2008.  Chart I illustrates price movements on the London (LIFFE) and New York (ICE Futures U.S.) markets in March.

Chart II shows the evolution of the ICCO daily prices denominated in U.S. dollars and SDRs for the period from January to March 2008.  Chart III depicts the link between New York futures prices and the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the Pound Sterling in March.  Chart IV illustrates the arbitrage spread between the New York and London futures markets.  Finally, Chart V shows the recent development in the monthly average of the ICCO daily prices volatility.

Monthly Review of the Cocoa Market Situation, April 2008

The current review of the cocoa market situation reports on price movements on the international markets during the month of April 2008.  Chart I illustrates price movements on the London (LIFFE) and New York (ICE Futures U.S.) markets in April.

Chart II shows the evolution of the ICCO daily prices denominated in U.S. dollars and SDRs for the period from February to April 2008.  Chart III depicts the link between the ICCO daily prices and the Reuters-CRB Index.  Finally, Chart IV shows the recent development in the volatility of cocoa and coffee prices.