London, 28 February 2014–The International Cocoa Organization today released its first forecasts for the 2013/2014 cocoa year and revised estimates of world production, grindings and stocks of cocoa beans for 2012/2013, summarized below. The data published in Issue No. 1 – Volume XL – Cocoa year 2013/2014 of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics reflect the most recent information available to the Secretariat as at the middle of February 2014.
Summary of forecasts and revised estimates
| Cocoa year (Oct-Sep) |
2012/2013 | 2013/2014 | Year-on-year change | ||
| Previous estimates a/ | Revised estimates | Forecasts | |||
| (thousand tonnes) | (Per cent) | ||||
| World production | 3 931 | 3 942 | 4 104 | + 162 | + 4.1% |
| World grindings | 4 052 | 4 077 | 4 178 | + 101 | + 2.5% |
| Surplus/deficit b/ | – 160 | – 174 | – 115 | ||
| End-of-season stocks | 1 672 | 1 662 | 1 547 | – 115 | – 6.9% |
| Stocks/Grindings ratio | 41.3% | 40.8% | 37.0% | ||
Notes:
a/ Estimates published in Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Vol. XXXIX – No. 4 – Cocoa year 2012/2013
b/ Surplus/deficit: Net world crop (gross crop adjusted for loss in weight) minus grindings
Totals may differ due to rounding.
This issue of the Bulletin contains the Secretariat’s first forecasts for the 2013/2014 cocoa year, as well as data for the past four years of production and grindings of cocoa beans, detailed by country. The main features of the global cocoa market are illustrated in colour charts. In addition, the Bulletinincludes comments on crop and demand prospects in the leading countries for the current season, and a review of price developments on international markets for cocoa beans during the October-December quarter of 2013.
Statistical information on trade in cocoa beans, cocoa products and chocolate, by country and by region, published in this edition, covers annual data from 2009/2010 to 2011/2012 and quarterly statistics for the period October-December 2011 to April-June 2013. Details of origin of imports and destination of exports for leading cocoa importing countries are also provided. Historical statistics on cocoa trade and consumption, by country and by region, for the period 2003/2004 to 2011/2012 are presented for reference.
Copies of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, including Microsoft Excel files and Adobe PDF format, can be ordered can be ordered by completing and returning this form or from the ICCO Secretariat at the address below:
International Cocoa Organization
Westgate House
Ealing
London W5 1YY, UK
Tel: +44 (0)20 8991 6000
Fax: +44 (0)20 8997 4372
E-mail: registry@icco.org or info@icco.org
