Abidjan, 31 August 2022 -The International Cocoa Organization today releases its revised forecasts for the 2021/22 cocoa year and revised estimates of world production, grindings and stocks of cocoa beans for the 2020/21 cocoa year. The data published in Issue No. 3 – Volume XLVIII – Cocoa year 2021/22 of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, reflect the most recent information available to the Secretariat as at the beginning of August 2022.
Incoming arrivals and purchases data reflect expectations of a lower global production for the 2021/22 season. Inflation has taken a toll on the prices of farm inputs, resulting in a reduced usage of fertilizers and this, combined with less conducive weather conditions and diseases, has contributed to the downward trend observed in global cocoa production.
Cocoa demand has held up on multiple fronts despite rising input costs, including high energy costs alongside supply chain issues and increase in interest rates among others. Indeed, demand has thus far remained steady during the season and the reduction seen in global supply has to this point been less disruptive to the cocoa market. Yet still, it is worth noting that with the current slowdown in the global economy, cocoa demand is subject to many uncertainties.
Summary of forecasts and revised estimates
|(thousand tonnes)||(Per cent)|
|World gross production||5 244||4 923||4 890||– 354||– 6.8%|
|World grindings||4 998||5 048||5 071||+ 73||+ 1.5%|
|Surplus/deficit b/||+ 194||– 174||– 230|
|End-of-season stocks||1 913||1 754||1 683||– 230||– 12%|
a/ Estimates published in Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Vol. XLVIII – No. 2 – Cocoa year 2021/22
b/ Surplus/deficit: net world crop (gross crop adjusted for loss in weight) minus grindings. Totals may differ due to rounding.
This issue of the Bulletin contains the Secretariat’s revised forecasts for the 2021/22 cocoa year as well as data for the past four years of production and grindings of cocoa beans, detailed by country. In addition, the Bulletin includes comments on the crop and demand prospects in the leading countries for the current season, a review of price developments on international markets for cocoa beans during the April-June quarter of 2022 and the evolution of trade flow data estimated for major cocoa exporting and importing countries during the January – March 2022 quarter of the 2021/22 season.
Statistical information on trade in cocoa beans, cocoa products and chocolate, by country and by region, published in this edition, covers crop year data from 2018/19 to 2020/21 and quarterly statistics for the period July-September 2020 to January-March 2022. Details of origin of imports and destination of exports for leading cocoa importing countries are also provided. Historical statistics on cocoa trade by country and by region, for the period 2012/13 to 2020/21 are presented for reference.
Copies of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, in Microsoft Excel and Adobe PDF formats, can be ordered from the ICCO e-Shop: https://www.icco.org/categorie-produit/qbcs/ or by email: email@example.com