Abidjan, 28 February 2028 – The International Cocoa Organization today releases its first forecasts for the 2021/22 cocoa year and revised estimates of world production, grindings, and stocks of cocoa beans for 2020/21 cocoa year. The data published in Issue No. 1 – Volume XLVIII – Cocoa year 2021/22 of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, reflect the most recent information available to the Secretariat as at the beginning of February 2022.
Compared to the 2020/21 season, cocoa supply is anticipated to drop by 5% to 4.955 million tonnes. The current season witnessed a slow start and despite the mild Harmattan, severe dryness is being experienced in the main producing countries of West Africa. Although it is anticipated that the weather will turn around for the better to support the mid-crop, global production for the season under review will still be lower compared to the historic level recorded for the preceding crop year.
Global cocoa demand is projected to increase and register a jump of almost 3% from 4.959 million tonnes during 2020/21 to 5.086 million tonnes for the season under review. Thanks to progress in vaccinations, economies have opened, and this boosted demand for most commodities including cocoa. Nevertheless, uncertainties remain over the long term. COVID-19 remains a concern as for the past years, outbreaks of COVID-19 variants led to restrictions on people’s movements and consequently demand. Indeed, supply chain bottlenecks, inflationary pressures, freight charges amongst others are key unknown factors that could derail the rebound of commodities including cocoa.
Summary of forecasts and revised estimates
|Previous estimates a/||Revised estimates||Forecasts|
|(thousand tonnes)||(Per cent)|
|World gross production||5 175||5 226||4 955||– 271||– 5.2%|
|World grindings||4 911||4 959||5 086||+ 127||+ 2.6%|
|Surplus/deficit b/||+ 212||+ 215||– 181|
|End-of-season stocks||1 924||1 928||1 747||– 181||– 9.4%|
a/ Estimates published in Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Vol. XLVII – No. 4 – Cocoa year 2020/21
b/ Surplus/deficit: net world crop (gross crop adjusted for loss in weight) minus grindings.
Totals may differ due to rounding.
Statistical information on trade in cocoa beans, cocoa products and chocolate, by country and by region, published in this edition, covers annual data from 2018/19 to 2020/21 and quarterly statistics for the period January-March 2020 to July-September 2021. Details on destinations of exports and origins of imports for leading cocoa exporting countries are also provided.