Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, 29 February 2024 – The International Cocoa Organization today releases its first forecasts for the 2023/24 cocoa year and revised estimates of world production, grindings, and stocks of cocoa beans for the 2022/23 cocoa year. The data published in Issue No. 1 – Volume L – Cocoa year 2023/24 of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, reflect the most recent information available to the Secretariat as at the beginning of February 2024.

Significant declines in production are expected from the top producing countries as they are envisaged to feel the detrimental effect of unfavourable weather conditions and diseases. Moreover, old trees in these countries are producing with lower yields. The low availability of cocoa beans has led to significant increases in cocoa prices. With costs of raw materials increasing, this is likely to affect the operations of processors.

Compared to the 2022/23 season, global cocoa supply is anticipated to decline by almost 11% to 4.449 million tonnes. Global cocoa demand is projected to decrease by almost 5% to 4.779 million tonnes.

Summary of forecasts and revised estimates

 

Cocoa year  (Oct-Sept)	2022/23		2023/24	Year-on-year change
	Previous estimates a/	Revised estimates	Forecasts
	(thousand tonnes)				(Per cent)
World gross production	4 953	4 996	4 449	– 547	– 10.9%
World grindings	5 002	5 020	4 779	– 241	– 4.8%
Surplus/deficit   b/	– 99	– 74	– 374
End-of-season stocks	1 744	1 769	1 395	– 374	– 21.1%
Stocks/Grindings ratio	34.9%	35.1%	29.2%

Notes:
a/ Estimates published in Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Vol. XLIX – No. 3 – Cocoa year 2022/23
b/ Surplus/deficit: net world crop (gross crop adjusted for 1% loss in weight) minus grindings.
Totals may differ due to rounding.

Statistical information on trade in cocoa beans, cocoa products and chocolate, by country and by region, published in this edition, covers annual data from 2020/21 to 2022/23 and quarterly statistics for the period January-March 2022 to July-September 2023. Details on destinations of exports and origins of imports for leading cocoa exporting countries are also provided.

Caution should be exercised in the interpretation of the data in this issue of the Bulletin as they may be subject to revisions in subsequent Bulletins and reports from the Secretariat.

Copies of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, in Microsoft Excel and Adobe PDF formats, can be ordered from the new ICCO e-Shop: www.icco.org/shop or by email: statistics.section@icco.org

Abidjan, 23 February 2024 – The International Cocoa Organization releases the Cocoa Market Report for January 2024. The current report highlights the following insights:

• Another year of a supply deficit and unfavourable weather conditions in West Africa are exacerbating the bullish prices situation.
• Arrivals at Ivorian ports are estimated to be down by 34% year-on-year to 1.051 million tonnes as at 4 February 2024. In Ghana, graded and sealed cocoa purchases were down year-on-year by 35% to 351,000 tonnes.
• In January 2024, the nearby contract i.e., MAR-24 price in London and New York averaged US$4,540 per tonne and US$4382 per tonne, respectively. Compared to the nominal average price in January 2023, prices are up by 84% in London and 67% in New York.
• Grindings data published by regional associations for Q4.2023 do not show significant changes compared to the Q4 period of the previous two cocoa years.
• Origin processing has been promoted over the past years and Côte d’Ivoire is currently seen as the leading cocoa grinder in the world. However, there is the likelihood of origin grindings being affected by the low availability of beans at major origin destinations.

You can download the complete report by clicking here.