Abidjan, 23 January 2023 – The International Cocoa Organization releases the Cocoa Market Report for December 2023. The current report highlights the following insights:

• During the calendar year 2023, supply was the major contributory factor that fuelled bullish prices.
• Other factors that signalled supply deficits and elevated cocoa prices were unconducive weather conditions and diseases. Floods caused delays to the mid-crop harvest.
• Moreover, black pod disease and swollen shoot virus due to the excess rains during the last quarter of 2023 heightened continued concerns of a shortfall in supply.
• With the recent surge in freight rates due to tensions in the Red Sea area, international trade is likely to be affected. With already high cocoa prices, an additional cost resulting from high freight rates may be daunting for cocoa users and could affect demand.
• At the end of 2023, the annual average price of the nearby contract in London had firmed by 46% compared to the previous calendar year. During the same period in New York, the average of the first position contract prices strengthened by 35% year-on-year. Furthermore, the annual average of the US-denominated ICCO daily price stood at US$3,261 per tonne, up by 38% compared to the average price of the previous year. The average of the Euro-denominated prices increased by 34% year-over-year, attaining €3,015 per tonne in 2023.

You can download the complete report by clicking here.

 

Abidjan, 12 December 2023 – The International Cocoa Organization releases the Cocoa Market Report for November 2023. The current report highlights the following insights:

• Cocoa prices continued to extend their rallies in November due to supply tightness. By the end of the month the nearby contract prices reached US$4,522 per tonne in London and US$4,458 per tonne in New York. Compared to prices at the official start of the 2023/24 season in October, this reflects an increase of 23% and 27% in London and New York, respectively.
• Unconducive weather conditions in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana have been the root cause for the current decline in supply. Heavy rains have affected farming activities, the spread of diseases and haulage operations in the two countries. As these two leading producing countries supply about two-thirds of global cocoa beans, any change in their production tends to have a significant impact on the cocoa market.
• Climate related challenges have consequences not only for producers but for consumers as well. Similar to high cocoa prices, confectionary manufacturers are also faced with other expenses such as surging cost of sugar. Prices of sugar have also increased due to weather events that led to declining production in key sugar producing countries.
• The high cost of key ingredients due to supply constraints will consequently raise production costs for chocolate manufacturers and eventually be reflected in the price rise of confectionery products.
• The deficit expected for the current season and previous years’ deficits have been caused by unconducive weather conditions. As the season progresses and more information becomes available, it will become clearer how supply, demand and prices will play out. 

You can download the complete report by clicking here.

 

Abidjan, 30 November 2023 – The International Cocoa Organization today releases its revised estimates for the 2021/22 and 2022/23 cocoa years for world production, grindings and stocks of cocoa beans, as summarized below. The data published in Issue No. 4 – Volume XLIX – Cocoa Year 2022/23 of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics reflect the latest information available to the Secretariat as of early November 2023.

The commentary of this edition of the Bulletin points out that the 2022/23 season was mainly characterized by a decline in supply from the two main producing countries and ended with a global production deficit. As the current 2023/24 season is also expected to end with a global production deficit, market participants continue to weigh the situation of successive supply deficits.

In this regard, several revisions have been made to the 2022/23 cocoa balance sheet. On the supply side, the production estimate has been revised upwards by 15,000 tons to 4.953 million tons, compared to the 4.938 million tons estimated in the previous bulletin.

As cocoa bean grindings are an indicator of cocoa demand, the continuous decline in quarterly grindings data published by the major regional cocoa associations during the 2022/23 season, compared to the previous year, indicates a slowdown in cocoa demand. On the demand side, grindings were revised down to 5.002 million tons from 5.005 million tons in the previous Bulletin.

Summary of revised estimates

 

Cocoa year (Oct-Sep)	2021/2022	2022/2023		Year-on-year change
	Revised estimates	Previous estimates a/	Revised estimates
	(thousand tonnes)				(Per cent)
World gross production	4 826	4 938	4 953	+ 127	+ 2.6%
World grindings	4 994	5 005	5 002	+ 8	+ 0.2%
Surplus/deficit b/	– 216	– 116	– 99
End-of-season stocks	1 843	1 727	1 744	– 99	– 5.4%
Stocks/Grindings ratio	36.9%	34.5%	34.9%

Notes:
a/ Estimates published in Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Vol. XLIX – No. 3 – Cocoa year 2022/23
b/  Surplus/deficit: net world crop (gross crop adjusted for loss in weight) minus grindings. Totals may differ due to rounding

 

Statistical information on trade in cocoa beans, cocoa products and chocolate, by country and by region, published in this edition, covers annual data from 2019/20 to 2021/22 and quarterly statistics for the period October-December 2021 to April-June 2023. Details on destinations of exports and origins of imports for leading cocoa exporting countries are also provided.

Caution should be exercised in the interpretation of the data in this issue of the Bulletin as they may be subject to revisions in subsequent Bulletins and reports from the Secretariat.

Copies of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, in Microsoft Excel and Adobe PDF formats, can be ordered from the new ICCO e-Shop: www.icco.org/shop or by email: statistics.section@icco.org