February 2015 Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics

London, 27 February 2015–The International Cocoa Organization today releases its first forecasts for the 2014/2015 cocoa year and revised estimates of world production, grindings and stocks of cocoa beans for 2013/2014, as summarized below. The data published in Issue No. 1 – Volume XLI – Cocoa year 2014/2015 of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, reflect the most recent information available to the Secretariat as at the beginning of February 2015.

Summary of forecasts and revised estimates

 

Cocoa year
(Oct-Sep)		 2013/2014 2014/2015 Year-on-year change
Previous estimates a/ Revised estimates Forecasts
(thousand tonnes) (Per cent)
World production 4 365 4 355 4 232 – 123 – 2.8%
World grindings 4 268 4 281 4 207 – 74 – 1.7%
Surplus/deficit b/  + 53  + 30  – 17
End-of-season stocks 1 659 1 626 1 609 – 17 – 1.0%
Stocks/Grindings ratio 38.9% 38.0% 38.2%

 

Notes:
a/   Estimates published in Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Vol. XL – No. 4 – Cocoa year 2013/2014
b/   Surplus/deficit: Net world crop (gross crop adjusted for loss in weight) minus grindings
Totals may differ due to rounding.

This issue of the Bulletin contains the Secretariat’s first forecasts for the 2014/2015 cocoa year as well as data for the past four years of production and grindings of cocoa beans, detailed by country. The main features of the global cocoa market are illustrated in colour charts. In addition, the Bulletinincludes comments on crop and demand prospects in the leading countries for the current season, and a review of price developments on international markets for cocoa beans during the October-December quarter of 2014.

Statistical information on trade in cocoa beans, cocoa products and chocolate, by country and by region, published in this edition, covers annual data from 2010/2011 to 2012/2013 and quarterly statistics for the period October-December 2012 to April-June 2014. Details of origin of imports and destination of exports for leading cocoa importing countries are also provided. Historical statistics on cocoa trade and consumption, by country and by region, for the period 2004/2005 to 2012/2013 are presented for reference.

Copies of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, including Microsoft Excel files and Adobe PDF format, can be ordered by completing and returning this form or from the ICCO Secretariat at the address below:

International Cocoa Organization
Westgate House
Ealing
London W5 1YY, UK

Tel:              +44 (0)20 8991 6000
Fax:             +44 (0)20 8997 4372
E-mail:         registry@icco.org or info@icco.org

Seminar on Cocoa Projects set for Accra in June

Following a decision taken by the International Cocoa Council at its 88th regular session in September 2013, the ICCO is to hold an International Seminar on the Development, Implementation and Evaluation of Cocoa Projects, which is being generously hosted by the Ghana Cocoa Board (Cocobod), at the Holiday Inn Hotel, Accra, Ghana, 9 – 12 June 2015.

The seminar is intended for relevant officials and policy makers from ICCO exporting member countries, who are involved in cocoa development programmes and projects, as well as for companies, and for not-for profit development institutions in African cocoa-producing countries. It aims to strengthen their skills and capacity to identify cocoa development projects, and to formulate, implement and evaluate them to the satisfactory requirements of both local and international donor and lending institutions.

The full programme of the seminar, along with practical arrangements for attendees, a registration form and details of special hotel rates kindly arranged by the Ghana Cocoa Board, are available here. Le programme intégrale du séminaire, ainsi que des informations utiles aux participants, le formulaire d'inscription, et les informations concernant les tarifs hôteliers spécialement négociés par le Ghana Cocoa Board, y sont disponibles.

All enquiries related to the seminar programme should be directed to Mr. Moisés Gómez, Project Officer (Telephone: +44 20 8991 6007 / 00; Email: moises.gomez@icco.org).

All enquiries related to registration and other practical arrangements should be directed to Mr. Philippe Pestelle, (Telephone: +44 20 8991 6019 / 00; Email: philippe.pestelle@icco.org).

Seminar partners:

                          

Assessment of world cocoa bean stocks for 2013-14

London, 23 January 2015 — The ICCO Expert Working Group on Stocks (EWGS) met today to review the level of world cocoa bean stocks. The EWGS is composed of experts in the cocoa field who meet once a year, at the invitation of the ICCO, to review and analyse the results of the ICCO’s annual survey of cocoa stocks held in warehouses worldwide. The survey has been conducted every year since 2000, and aims to improve transparency in the cocoa market.

The result of the latest survey showed that world cocoa bean stocks fell to 1.508 million tonnes, as at the end of the 2013/2014 cocoa year (30 September 2014) – a figure 19,000 tonnes lower than the previous year. This means that demand may have slightly outpaced net production in the 2013/2014 season. This result differs from the statistically-derived estimate published by the ICCO in November 2014 in its latest Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics (QBCS), showing a supply surplus of 53,000 tonnes.

The EWGS would like to note that caution should be exercised in the interpretation of the difference between the results of the survey and the statistically derived stocks.

The EWGS now notes that a cumulative gap of 151,000 tonnes has developed between the annual survey of cocoa stocks held in warehouses worldwide and the ICCO’s statistically-derived stocks figure. The EWGS suggests that the following factors may have contributed to this difference:

  • Increase in stocks held in locations not reporting to the ICCO survey, such as in Indonesia; and
  • Cocoa beans in transit higher than estimated.

While the ICCO Secretariat maintains, so far, its supply surplus estimate of 53,000 tonnes as published in its latest QBCS as its official estimate for 2013/2014, it may revise that figure in the next edition of the QBCS due at the end of February 2015, taking into account the outcome of this survey.

International Cocoa Council and subsidiary bodies, 23 – 27 March 2015, Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire

The International Cocoa Council and subsidiary bodies, including the Consultative Board on the World Cocoa Economy, as well as the Economics and Administration and Finance Committees, will meet at the Hotel Sofitel Ivoire, Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, 23 – 27 March 2015.

Provisional Timetable of Meetings, 23 – 27 March 2015, Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire

ED(MEM) 977 – Rev 2 – English Only
English French Spanish Russian

Arrangements for the March 2015 meetings

ED(MEM) 978
English French Spanish Russian

International Cocoa Council: Draft Agenda

ICC-91-1 – Rev 1
English French Spanish Russian

Administration and Finance Committee: Draft Agenda

AF-5-1 – Rev 1
English French Spanish Russian

Economics Committee: Draft Agenda

EC-5-1 – Rev 1
English French Spanish Russian

Consultative Board on the World Cocoa Economy: Draft Agenda

CB-30-1 – Rev 1
English French Spanish Russian