Abidjan, 31 May 2021 – The International Cocoa Organization today releases its revised forecasts for the 2020/21 cocoa year and revised estimates of world production, grindings, and stocks of cocoa beans for the 2019/20 cocoa year. The data published in Issue No. 2 – Volume XLVII – Cocoa year 2020/21 of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, reflect the most recent information available to the Secretariat as at the beginning of May 2021.
A global record production of 5.024 million tonnes is forecast for the 2020/21 season. This is the first time that the 5 million mark has been broken. Record productions are expected in Côte d’Ivoire (1st world producer) and Ecuador (3rd world producer) following conducive weather conditions in cocoa producing areas. Despite an expected increase in world grindings, a production surplus of 165,000 tonnes is currently anticipated for the crop year under review.
In terms of share of total world production, Africa is expected to remain by far the largest cocoa producing region, accounting for 77% of world cocoa output. The shares of the Americas and Asia and Oceania are likely to be 17% and 6% respectively.
Summary of forecasts and revised estimates
| Cocoa year (Oct-Sep) |
2019/2020 | 2020/2021 | Year-on-year change | ||
| Revised estimates |
Previous forecasts a/ |
Revised forecasts |
|||
| (thousand tonnes) | (Per cent) | ||||
| World gross production | 4 728 | 4 843 | 5 024 | + 296 | + 6.30% |
| World grindings | 4 671 | 4 693 | 4 809 | + 138 | + 3.00% |
| Surplus/deficit b/ | – 10 | + 102 | + 165 | ||
| End-of-season stocks | 1 728 | 1 832 | 1 893 | + 165 | + 9.50% |
| Stocks/Grindings ratio | 37.0% | 39.0% | 39.4% | ||
Notes:
a/ Estimates published in Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Vol. XLVII – No. 1 – Cocoa year 2020/21
b/ Surplus/deficit: net world crop (gross crop adjusted for loss in weight) minus grindings
Totals may differ due to rounding.
This issue of the Bulletin also contains data for the past four years production and grindings of cocoa beans details by country. The main features of the global market are illustrated in colour charts, maps, and Sankey diagrams. In addition, the Bulletin includes comments on the crop and demand prospects in leading countries for the current season, a review of price developments on international markets for cocoa beans during the January-March quarter of 2021 and the evolution of trade flow data estimated for major cocoa exporting and importing countries during the first quarter of the 2020/21 season.
Statistical information on trade in cocoa beans, cocoa products and chocolate, by country and by region, published in this edition, covers crop year data from 2017/18 to 2019/20 and quarterly statistics for the period April-June 2019 to October-December 2020. Details of destination of exports and origin of imports for leading cocoa exporting countries are also provided. Historical statistics on cocoa trade, by country and by region, for the period 2011/12 to 2019/20 are presented for reference.
Copies of the May 2021 Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, in Microsoft Excel and Adobe PDF formats, can be ordered from the new ICCO e-Shop: www.icco.org/shop or by email: statistics.section@icco.org
