Abidjan, 30 November 2021 – The International Cocoa Organization today releases its revised estimates for the 2019/20 and 2020/21 cocoa years of world production, grindings, and stocks of cocoa beans, summarized below. The data published in Issue No. 4 – Volume XLVII – Cocoa Year 2020/21 of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, reflect the most recent information available to the Secretariat as at the beginning of November 2021.
For this issue, several revisions have been made to the 2020/21 cocoa balance sheet. On the supply side, the production estimate has been adjusted up by 34,000 tonnes to 5.175 million tonnes, almost 1% above estimate provided in the previous Bulletin. A higher yield observed in most of the major producing countries underlined the upward revisions. Indeed, conducive weather conditions globally played a major role in setting a new production record.
On the demand side, grindings have been adjusted higher by almost 51,000 tonnes to 4.911 million tonnes based on increased use of beans as reflected in the trade of cocoa products. Notwithstanding the challenges of COVID-19, the opening of economies worldwide in 2021 has stimulated the overall recovery observed in the 2020/21 season’s grindings. Cocoa grindings in 2020/21 are heading towards pre-pandemic levels – from an estimate of 4.707 million tonnes in 2019/20 to 4.911 million tonnes in 2020/21, which reflects a 4% year-on-year increase.
Summary of revised estimates
| Cocoa year (Oct-Sep) |
2019/2020 | 2020/2021 | Year-on-year change | ||
| Revised estimates |
Previous estimates a/ |
Revised estimates |
|||
| (thousand tonnes) | (Per cent) | ||||
| World production | 4 735 | 5 141 | 5 175 | + 440 | + 9.3% |
| World grindings | 4 707 | 4 860 | 4 911 | + 204 | + 4.3% |
| Surplus/deficit b/ | -19 | + 230 | + 212 | ||
| End-of-season stocks | 1 712 | 1 963 | 1 924 | + 212 | + 12.4% |
| Stocks/Grindings ratio | 36.4% | 30.4% | 39.2% | ||
Notes:
a/ Estimates published in Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Vol. XLVII – No. 3 – Cocoa year 2020/2021
b/ Surplus/deficit: net world crop (gross crop adjusted for loss in weight) minus grindings. Totals may differ due to rounding
Statistical information on trade in cocoa beans, cocoa products and chocolate, by country and by region, published in this edition, covers annual data from 2017/18 to 2019/20 and quarterly statistics for the period October-December 2019 to April-June 2021. Details on destinations of exports and origins of imports for leading cocoa exporting countries are also provided.
Copies of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, in Microsoft Excel and Adobe PDF formats, can be ordered from the new ICCO e-Shop: www.icco.org/shop or by email: statistics.section@icco.org
