Archive for year: 2021

Abidjan, 31 May 2021 – The International Cocoa Organization today releases its revised forecasts for the 2020/21 cocoa year and revised estimates of world production, grindings, and stocks of cocoa beans for the 2019/20 cocoa year. The data published in Issue No. 2 – Volume XLVII – Cocoa year 2020/21 of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, reflect the most recent information available to the Secretariat as at the beginning of May 2021.

A global record production of 5.024 million tonnes is forecast for the 2020/21 season. This is the first time that the 5 million mark has been broken. Record productions are expected in Côte d’Ivoire (1^st world producer) and Ecuador (3^rd world producer) following conducive weather conditions in cocoa producing areas. Despite an expected increase in world grindings, a production surplus of 165,000 tonnes is currently anticipated for the crop year under review.

In terms of share of total world production, Africa is expected to remain by far the largest cocoa producing region, accounting for 77% of world cocoa output. The shares of the Americas and Asia and Oceania are likely to be 17% and 6% respectively.

Summary of forecasts and revised estimates

 

Cocoa year (Oct-Sep)	2019/2020	2020/2021		Year-on-year change
	Revised estimates	Previous forecasts a/	Revised forecasts
	(thousand tonnes)				(Per cent)
World gross production	4 728	4 843	5 024	+ 296	+ 6.30%
World grindings	4 671	4 693	4 809	+ 138	+ 3.00%
Surplus/deficit b/	– 10	+ 102	+ 165
End-of-season stocks	1 728	1 832	1 893	+ 165	+ 9.50%
Stocks/Grindings ratio	37.0%	39.0%	39.4%

Notes:
a/ Estimates published in Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Vol. XLVII – No. 1 – Cocoa year 2020/21
b/  Surplus/deficit: net world crop (gross crop adjusted for loss in weight) minus grindings
Totals may differ due to rounding.

This issue of the Bulletin also contains data for the past four years production and grindings of cocoa beans details by country. The main features of the global market are illustrated in colour charts, maps, and Sankey diagrams. In addition, the Bulletin includes comments on the crop and demand prospects in leading countries for the current season, a review of price developments on international markets for cocoa beans during the January-March quarter of 2021 and the evolution of trade flow data estimated for major cocoa exporting and importing countries during the first quarter of the 2020/21 season.

Statistical information on trade in cocoa beans, cocoa products and chocolate, by country and by region, published in this edition, covers crop year data from 2017/18 to 2019/20 and quarterly statistics for the period April-June 2019 to October-December 2020. Details of destination of exports and origin of imports for leading cocoa exporting countries are also provided. Historical statistics on cocoa trade, by country and by region, for the period 2011/12 to 2019/20 are presented for reference.

Copies of the May 2021 Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, in Microsoft Excel and Adobe PDF formats, can be ordered from the new ICCO e-Shop: www.icco.org/shop or by email: statistics.section@icco.org

Abidjan, 15 April 2021 – The International Cocoa Organization today releases the Cocoa Market Report for March 2021. The current report highlights the following key facts:

• Front-month cocoa contract prices in London and New York plunged by 13% and 14% respectively.
• European certified stocks increased by 21% while a 31% rise was recorded in certified stocks in the United States, thanks to gradings that occurred during March on the Exchange.
• Over 52,000 tonnes of cocoa beans were tendered against the March 2021 contract in Europe.
• Origin differentials showed signs of halting from pronounced drops on both sides of the Atlantic.
• 2020/21 crop sizes of Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana are currently higher year-on-year.

You can download the complete report from our Statistics section

 

Abidjan, 04 March 2021. The ICCO Expert Working Group on Stocks (EWGS) met via videoconference today, Thursday 4 March 2021 to review the level of estimated and identified world cocoa bean stocks as at the end of the 2019/20 cocoa year. The EWGS is composed of experts in the cocoa field who meet at the invitation of the ICCO.

LOCATION OF THE ESTIMATED AND IDENTIFIED COCOA BEAN STOCKS	30 SEPTEMBER 2018	30 SEPTEMBER 2019	30 SEPTEMBER 2020
Stocks in cocoa importing countries	1,110	1,107	1,086
Stocks in cocoa exporting countries	215	215	164
Cocoa beans in transit	74	85	70
Total estimated and identified stocks	1,399	1,407	1,320
Estimated and identified stocks as a percentage of statistically-derived stocks	79%	82%	76%
ICCO statistically-derived stocks	1,768	1,720	1,730

Notes:Totals and differences may differ due to rounding.

 

The EWGS now notes that a gap of 410,000 tonnes exists between the annual assessment of the estimated and identified cocoa bean stocks worldwide and the ICCO’s statistically-derived stocks figure. This is due to the existence of stocks held in non-reporting locations of which Asia is the most significant area.

While the ICCO Secretariat maintains, so far, its supply surplus estimate of 10,000 tonnes for 2019/20 as published in its latest QBCS, it may revise that figure in its next Bulletin due at the end of May 2021, taking into account the outcome of this survey.

For more information, please contact Carlos Follana, Marketing and Communication Coordinator, International Cocoa Organization, ICCO Building, II Plateaux ENA – Avenue Boga Doudou, Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire; Tel: +225 22 51 49 50/51 | Fax: +225 22 51 49 79 | E-mail: Carlos.Follana@icco.org

Abidjan, 28 January 2021. The ICCO Expert Working Group on Stocks (EWGS) met via videoconference today, Thursday 28 January 2021 to review the level of European cocoa bean stocks as per the ICCO survey. The survey has been conducted every year since 2000 and aims to improve transparency in the cocoa market.

The EWGS is composed of experts in the cocoa field who meet, at the invitation of the ICCO, to review and analyse the results of the ICCO’s annual survey of cocoa bean stocks held in warehouses worldwide. However, due to unavoidable circumstances the Group discussed only the European stocks and will in due course conduct another meeting to assess total worldwide stocks.

TABLE: 1 ESTIMATES OF EUROPEAN WAREHOUSE STOCKS OF COCOA

 

Location	30 September 2018 a/	30 September 2019 a/	30 September 2020 a/	Year-on-year change 2018/19-2019/20
	(tonnes)
Total European port-warehouse stocks	766,465	786,385	774,651	-11,734	-1.5%

Notes: a/ The estimates of European port-warehouse stocks are based on replies/revised estimates to the latest Secretariat questionnaire as at 21 January 2021.

Results for the survey dated 30 September 2020 as shown in Table 1, depict that European cocoa stocks were 774,651 tonnes as at the end of the 2019/20 cocoa year, representing a reduction of 1.5% (down by 11,734 tonnes) compared with the previous season. Due caution should however be exercised in interpreting these results, as not all warehouse-keepers responded and the same values were considered for two warehouses (holding about 90,000 tonnes of stocks altogether) that did not reply to the survey.

TABLE 2: COMPARISON OF ICE FUTURES EUROPE COCOA BEAN STOCKS WITH ICCO SURVEY DATA AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2020

 

	ICCO survey on European port-warehouse stocks		ICE Futures Europe terminal market stocks		ICE Futures Europe stocks as % of ICCO survey (2019/20)
	(tonnes)
	30 September 2019	30 September 2020	30 September 2019	30 September 2020
TOTAL	786,385	774,651	169,510	156,730	20.0%

The regular publication of information on terminal market stocks of cocoa by ICE Futures Europe provides an additional check on the accuracy of the ICCO survey results. As seen in Table 2, the percentage of terminal market stocks was reduced by 8% from 169,510 tonnes at the end of the 2018/19 season to 156,730 tonnes for the 2019/20 season. It is worth noting that the ICE Futures Europe stocks represented almost 20% of the overall cocoa stocks of the ICCO European stocks survey as at the end of the 2019/20 cocoa year.

Cocoa stocks published by ICE Futures Europe are generally lower than the volume of cocoa identified by the ICCO survey for two main reasons. Firstly, they represent only part of the cocoa stocks held by warehouse-keepers, as they are restricted to graded cocoa held in ICE Futures Europe nominated warehouses. On the contrary, the ICCO survey endeavours to seek information on all cocoa stocks held by the warehouses, and includes cocoa destined for the terminal market as well as cocoa stocks held by warehouse-keepers for traders, cocoa processors and chocolate manufacturers. The ICCO survey figure also compiles data from a wider geographical area and includes cocoa stored in port warehouses that are outside the ICE Futures Europe designated Delivery Area.

The EWGS would like to note that another meeting will be conveyed to assess the total estimated world stocks of cocoa beans and a press release will be issued in due course.

For more information, please contact Carlos Follana, Marketing and Communication Coordinator, International Cocoa Organization, ICCO Building, II Plateaux ENA – Avenue Boga Doudou, Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire; Tel: +225 22 51 49 50/51 | Fax: +225 22 51 49 79 | E-mail: Carlos.Follana@icco.org