Abidjan, 31 May 2022 – The International Cocoa Organization today releases its revised forecasts for the 2021/22 cocoa year and revised estimates of world production, grindings and stocks of cocoa beans for the 2020/21 cocoa year. The data published in Issue No. 2 – Volume XLVIII – cocoa year 2021/22 of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, reflect the most recent information available to the Secretariat as at the beginning of May 2022.
Compared to the 2020/21 season, for the current 2021/22 season, the forecast for global production is projected to decline by 6% to 4.923 million tonnes. Grindings on the other hand are expected to increase by almost 2% to 5.048 million tonnes. The gap will be covered by a reduction in stocks of 9%.
Several factors including adverse weather conditions and diseases are negatively affecting production for the ongoing season, with concerns for the size and quality of the ongoing mid-crop in West Africa.
Following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, trade disruptions, sanctions and high freight rates are affecting cocoa and fertilizer trade. The shortage of fertilizers on cocoa farms will very likely affect the quantity, quality and size of cocoa beans next year.
Despite the geopolitical and economic challenges that the world is currently facing, cocoa demand for the first half of the 2021/22 season has so far sustained a positive stance. Factors which contributed to the increase in cocoa demand include the resumption of activities in the air travel sector, which is a major gateway for chocolate sales as well as the recommencement of seasonal festivities. Positive quarterly earnings reports from major confectionary manufacturers for the period January – March 2022 also reveal that confectionary sales, which include chocolate, have picked up and are heading or at par with pre-COVID-19 era trends.
Summary of forecasts and revised estimates
Cocoa year
(Oct-Sep) |
2020/2021 |
2021/2022 |
Year-on-year change |
|
Revised
estimates |
Previous
forecasts a/ |
Revised
forecasts |
|
|
(thousand tonnes) |
(Per cent) |
| World gross production |
5 240 |
4 955 |
4 923 |
– 317 |
– 6.0% |
| World grindings |
4 973 |
5 086 |
5 048 |
+ 75 |
+ 1.5% |
| Surplus/deficit b/ |
+ 215 |
– 181 |
– 174 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| End-of-season stocks |
1 928 |
1 747 |
1 754 |
– 174 |
– 9.0% |
| Stocks/Grindings ratio |
38.8% |
34.3% |
34.7% |
|
|
Notes:
a/ Estimates published in Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Vol. XLVIII – No. 1 – Cocoa year 2021/22
b/ Surplus/deficit: net world crop (gross crop adjusted for loss in weight) minus grindings. Totals may differ due to rounding
Statistical information on trade in cocoa beans, cocoa products and chocolate, by country and by region, published in this edition, covers annual data from 2018/19 to 2020/21 and quarterly statistics for the period April-June 2020 to October-December 2021. Details on destinations of exports and origins of imports for leading cocoa exporting countries are also provided.
Copies of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, in Microsoft Excel and Adobe PDF formats, can be ordered from the new ICCO e-Shop: www.icco.org/shop or by email: statistics.section@icco.org
