Archive for year: 2022

Abidjan, 28 February 2022 – The International Cocoa Organization today releases its first forecasts for the 2021/22 cocoa year and revised estimates of world production, grindings, and stocks of cocoa beans for 2020/21 cocoa year. The data published in Issue No. 1 – Volume XLVIII – Cocoa year 2021/22 of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, reflect the most recent information available to the Secretariat as at the beginning of February 2022.

Compared to the 2020/21 season, cocoa supply is anticipated to drop by 5% to 4.955 million tonnes. The current season witnessed a slow start and despite the mild Harmattan, severe dryness is being experienced in the main producing countries of West Africa. Although it is anticipated that the weather will turn around for the better to support the mid-crop, global production for the season under review will still be lower compared to the historic level recorded for the preceding crop year.

Global cocoa demand is projected to increase and register a jump of almost 3% from 4.959 million tonnes during 2020/21 to 5.086 million tonnes for the season under review. Thanks to progress in vaccinations, economies have opened, and this boosted demand for most commodities including cocoa. Nevertheless, uncertainties remain over the long term. COVID-19 remains a concern as for the past years, outbreaks of COVID-19 variants led to restrictions on people’s movements and consequently demand. Indeed, supply chain bottlenecks, inflationary pressures, freight charges amongst others are key unknown factors that could derail the rebound of commodities including cocoa.

Summary of forecasts and revised estimates

 

Cocoa year  (Oct-Sept)	2020/21		2021/22	Year-on-year change
	Previous estimates a/	Revised estimates	Forecasts
	(thousand tonnes)				(Per cent)
World gross production	5 175	5 226	4 955	– 271	– 5.2%
World grindings	4 911	4 959	5 086	+ 127	+ 2.6%
Surplus/deficit   b/	+ 212	+ 215	– 181
End-of-season stocks	1 924	1 928	1 747	– 181	– 9.4%
Stocks/Grindings ratio	39.2%	38.9%	34.3%

Notes:
a/ Estimates published in Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Vol. XLVII – No. 4 – Cocoa year 2020/21
b/ Surplus/deficit: net world crop (gross crop adjusted for loss in weight) minus grindings.
Totals may differ due to rounding.

Statistical information on trade in cocoa beans, cocoa products and chocolate, by country and by region, published in this edition, covers annual data from 2018/19 to 2020/21 and quarterly statistics for the period January-March 2020 to July-September 2021. Details on destinations of exports and origins of imports for leading cocoa exporting countries are also provided.

Copies of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, in Microsoft Excel and Adobe PDF formats, can be ordered from the new ICCO e-Shop: www.icco.org/shop or by email: statistics.section@icco.org

Abidjan, 11 February 2022 – The International Cocoa Organization today releases the Cocoa Market Report for January 2022. The current report highlights the following insights:

• Grindings data published by the main regional cocoa associations for the first quarter of the 2021/22 cocoa year signalled that cocoa demand for the season started on a strong note.
• Cocoa production in Côte d’Ivoire since the start of the 2021/22 cocoa year is reported to have overtaken last season’s level at 1.340 million tonnes as at 30 January, slightly up by 1.5% compared with the 1.320 million tonnes recorded at the same period of the 2020/21 season. On the contrary in Ghana, the latest available data on purchases of graded and sealed cocoa beans were lower year-on-year.
• During January 2022, prices of the front-month cocoa futures contract oscillated between US$2,238 and US$2,428 per tonne in London and averaged US$2,324 per tonne, slightly lower compared to the average price of US$2,343 per tonne for the nearby contract recorded at the same period of the 2020/21 cocoa year. In New York, the average price of the MAR-22 contract settled at US$2,547 per tonne, up from US$2,528 per tonne recorded in January 2021 and ranged between US$2,420 and US$2,663 per tonne.

You can download the complete report by clicking here.

 

Abidjan, 27 January 2022. The ICCO Expert Working Group on Stocks (EWGS) met today, Thursday 27 January 2022 to review the level of world cocoa bean stocks. The EWGS is composed of experts in the cocoa field who meet once a year, at the invitation of the ICCO, to review and analyse the results of the ICCO’s annual survey of cocoa bean stocks held in European warehouses as well as assess the level of global cocoa bean stocks. The survey is conducted every year (since 2000) and aims to improve transparency in the cocoa market.

 

LOCATION OF THE ESTIMATED AND IDENTIFIED COCOA BEAN STOCKS	30 SEPTEMBER 2019	30 SEPTEMBER 2020	30 SEPTEMBER 2021
Stocks in cocoa importing countries	1,011	987	1,106
Stocks in cocoa exporting countries	215	171	256 ***
Stocks in South-East Asia			199
Total identified stocks	1,226 **	1,158 **	1,561
Manufacturers’ stocks	77	75	95
Cocoa beans in transit	83	81	107
Total estimated world cocoa bean stocks	1,385 **	1,315 **	1,764
Total identified world stocks as a percentage of total estimated world stocks	89%	88%	88%
Total identified stocks as a percentage of statistically-derived stocks	70%	68%	81%
ICCO statistically-derived stocks*	1,731	1,712	1,924

Notes: Totals may differ from sum of constituents due to rounding

* Published in the ICCO Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Volume XLVII, No. 4, Cocoa Year 2020/21

** Do not include stocks data from South-East Asia

*** Do not include data from Brazil

The EWGS now notes that, compared to the revised gap of 397,000 tonnes for the 2019/20 cocoa year, the current assessment indicates that the gap between the estimated cocoa bean stocks worldwide and the ICCO’s statistically-derived stocks data has declined to 160,000 tonnes for the 2020/21 cocoa year. This reduction is partly due to the inclusion of stocks from South-East Asia in the current assessment. However, the non-availability of stocks from some important producing countries contributed to the current divergence.

While the ICCO Secretariat maintains, so far, its supply surplus estimate of 212,000 tonnes for 2020/21 as published in its latest QBCS, it may revise that figure in its next Bulletin due at the end of February 2022, taking into account the outcome of this survey.

For more information, please contact Carlos Follana, Marketing and Communication Coordinator, International Cocoa Organization, ICCO Building, II Plateaux ENA – Avenue Boga Doudou, Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire; Tel: +225 22 51 49 50/51 | Fax: +225 22 51 49 79 | E-mail: Carlos.Follana@icco.org