Archive for year: 2014

London, 28 February 2014–The International Cocoa Organization today released its first forecasts for the 2013/2014 cocoa year and revised estimates of world production, grindings and stocks of cocoa beans for 2012/2013, summarized below. The data published in Issue No. 1 – Volume XL – Cocoa year 2013/2014 of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics reflect the most recent information available to the Secretariat as at the middle of February 2014.

Summary of forecasts and revised estimates

Notes:
a/   Estimates published in Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Vol. XXXIX – No. 4 – Cocoa year 2012/2013
b/   Surplus/deficit: Net world crop (gross crop adjusted for loss in weight) minus grindings
Totals may differ due to rounding.

This issue of the Bulletin contains the Secretariat’s first forecasts for the 2013/2014 cocoa year, as well as data for the past four years of production and grindings of cocoa beans, detailed by country. The main features of the global cocoa market are illustrated in colour charts. In addition, the Bulletinincludes comments on crop and demand prospects in the leading countries for the current season, and a review of price developments on international markets for cocoa beans during the October-December quarter of 2013.

Statistical information on trade in cocoa beans, cocoa products and chocolate, by country and by region, published in this edition, covers annual data from 2009/2010 to 2011/2012 and quarterly statistics for the period October-December 2011 to April-June 2013. Details of origin of imports and destination of exports for leading cocoa importing countries are also provided. Historical statistics on cocoa trade and consumption, by country and by region, for the period 2003/2004 to 2011/2012 are presented for reference.

Copies of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, including Microsoft Excel files and Adobe PDF format, can be ordered can be ordered by completing and returning this form or from the ICCO Secretariat at the address below:

International Cocoa Organization
Westgate House
Ealing
London W5 1YY, UK

Tel:              +44 (0)20 8991 6000
Fax:             +44 (0)20 8997 4372
E-mail:         registry@icco.org or info@icco.org

LONDON, 7 January 2014–The International Cocoa Organization is to run another International Seminar on Futures Markets and Econometric Modelling of the Cocoa Market, this time at the Ivotel, Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire,  24 – 28 February 2014, the ICCO announced today.

Organized in conjunction with the Ministry of Agriculture of Côte d’Ivoire and the Conseil du Café-Cacao, the week-long Seminar once again aims to give policy makers and other stakeholders in the cocoa sector, particularly from the African region, an improved understanding of the functioning of cocoa futures markets and the enhanced ability to use econometric models to forecast market developments.

Futures markets, also called terminal markets, play a vital role in the world cocoa economy. They allow those in the trade and industry to manage their price risk, provide valuable information on storage decisions, and collect and disseminate information on world prices.  In addition to examining in detail the functioning of these markets and recent regulatory changes, the participants will review, among other subjects, the impact of speculative trading on cocoa futures prices and volatility, and price transmission between the futures markets and the physical markets at origin.

Because of the specific nature of cocoa growing, investment / disinvestment decisions in cocoa production capacity takes several years to show their full impact. The lack of adequate forecasting and / or the capacity to conduct it has been a major factor leading the cocoa sector to experience periods of boom and bust, with cocoa prices swinging between less than US$1,000 per tonne in the year 2000 to over US$18,000 in the year 1977 (in 2012 price terms). The techniques involved ineconometric modelling can be used to forecast market development and to help stakeholders, from cocoa and chocolate companies’ market analysts to policy makers, to take informed decisions regarding investment in the cocoa business and thereby, optimize their rate of returns.

The two modules of the Seminar are scheduled to run back-to-back throughout the five days. The module on terminal markets is appropriate for those with an economic or financial background. Meanwhile, quantitative economists, econometricians and statisticians make up the target group for the module on econometric modelling. However, parties with the relevant background or knowledge can participate in either or both modules.

ICCO staff and international experts with an in-depth knowledge of the subjects will deliver the Seminar training. The Seminar follows up on a number of studies on cocoa price determination and the functioning of the cocoa markets published by the Organization’s staff in recent years, and the ICCO also has built a sophisticated econometric model on the world cocoa economy and publishes regular forecasts on cocoa supply and demand based on it. Both module topics already have been the subject of well received seminars held at the ICCO headquarters in London, and, in 2013, in Guayaquil, Ecuador.

The Seminar will be held in Côte d’Ivoire’s commercial capital and cocoa port of Abidjan, at the kind invitation of the Ivorian Government.