May 2015 Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics

London, 29 May 2015 — The International Cocoa Organization today releases its revised forecasts for the current 2014/2015 cocoa year and revised estimates of world production, grindings and stocks of cocoa beans for 2013/2014, as summarized below. The data published in Issue No. 2 – Volume XLI – Cocoa year 2014/2015 of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statisticsreflect the most recent information available to the Secretariat as at the middle of May 2015.

Summary of revised forecasts and estimates

 

Cocoa year
(Oct-Sep)		 2013/2014 2014/2015 Year-on-year change
Revised
estimates		 Previous
Forecasts a/		 Revised
Forecasts
(thousand tonnes) (Per cent)
World production 4 359 4 232 4 168 – 191 – 4.4%
World grindings 4 301 4 207 4 164 – 137 – 3.2%
Surplus/deficit b/ +  14 –  17 – 38
End-of-season stocks 1 608 1 609 1 570  – 38 – 2.4%
Stocks/Grindings ratio 37.4% 38.2% 37.7%

 

Notes:
a/   Estimates published in Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Vol. XLI – No. 1 – Cocoa year 2014/2015
b/   Surplus/deficit: Net world crop (gross crop adjusted for loss in weight) minus grindings
Totals may differ due to rounding.

This issue of the Bulletin contains the Secretariat’s revised forecasts for the 2014/2015 cocoa year as well as data for the past four years of production and grindings of cocoa beans, detailed by country. The main features of the global cocoa market are illustrated in colour charts. In addition, the Bulletin includes comments on crop and demand prospects in the leading countries for the current season, and a review of price developments on international markets for cocoa beans during the January-March quarter of 2015.

Statistical information on trade in cocoa beans, cocoa products and chocolate, by country and by region, published in this edition, covers annual data from 2011/2012 to 2013/2014 and quarterly statistics for the period January-March 2013 to July-September 2014. Details of destination of exports and origin of imports for leading cocoa exporting countries are also provided. Historical statistics on cocoa trade and consumption, by country and by region, for the period 2005/2006 to 2013/2014 are presented for reference.

Copies of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, including Microsoft Excel files and Adobe PDF format, can be ordered by completing and returning this form or from the ICCO Secretariat at the address below:

International Cocoa Organization
Westgate House
Ealing
London W5 1YY, UK

Tel:              +44 (0)20 8991 6000
Fax:             +44 (0)20 8997 4372
E-mail:         registry@icco.org or info@icco.org

ICCO stresses sustainability and innovation at Singapore Congress

The ICCO stressed the importance of sustainability and innovation at the opening session of the Asia Choco Cocoa Congress, held in late April in Singapore.

Speaking on behalf of the Organization, Senior Economist Mr. Loke Fong Han emphasised the interdependence of all stakeholders and the fact that each component in the chain is vital to the future sustainability of the cocoa sector.

He advocated better coordination of initiatives and national policies, and increasing crop and farm diversification in his presentations. Improving quality and branding cocoa origins were steps leading to increased value for cocoa bean production, he said, and would help producing countries and their farmers to move up the chain rather than merely producing beans for export.

Mr. Han also reconfirmed the ICCO’s position that the widely publicised fear of a major upcoming cocoa shortage was seriously overstated, and presented some of the Organization’s forecasts for supply and demand of cocoa in the next few years.

The ICCO was a supporter of the Asian Choco Cocoa Congress, which drew participants from around the Asian cocoa producing region.

ICCO stresses sustainability and innovation at Singapore Congress

Price risk management training project begins in West Africa

The ICCO launched its project Capacity building on price risk management strategy for cocoa smallholders in Africa in Cameroon and Nigeria in late April, with capacity building workshops held in Yaoundé and Abuja.

Implemented by the well known NGO Twin, the workshops attracted participation from cocoa farmers, co-operatives, producers associations, local banks and government officials. Similar workshops are already planned for Sierra Leone and Togo in the coming months.

The workshop participants discussed the results of a farm survey on the current price-risk management practices adopted in Cameroon and Sierra Leone. It emerged that only five per cent of interviewed cocoa producers are managing their price risk exposure either by negotiating the sale price before the delivery takes place (i.e. forward contracts), or by employing more sophisticated strategies (i.e. futures contracts). Furthermore, most farmers have misconceptions about how the world cocoa price is derived and the role of cocoa futures markets.

After this initial stage in the capacity building process, local cocoa stakeholders will go on to attend an intense training programme to fill these knowledge gaps. Subsequently, the Project Co-ordinators of each implementing country will contract some of these trained stakeholders to provide technical assistance to cocoa co-operatives on the ground.

The ultimate project goal is to increase the awareness of local cocoa stakeholders about price risk and about the means to reduce its detrimental effects on farm income. Indeed, the mitigation of the farm gate price risk is one of the pillars underpinning the reduction of the poverty level of cocoa farmers. Specifically reducing income uncertainty puts producers in a better position to plan both their current farm management practices, and their investment decisions. By doing so, positive spill over effects are expected on farm productivity.

The current project has been made possible by project grants from the Common Fund for Commodities (CFC) and the Agence Française de Développement (AFD).